By Logan Jones
Student Reporter
Is it too early to announce a presidential election run?
The United States is still a good two years away from its next election; however, this does not deter the future potential candidates.
According to ballotpedia.org, as of Feb 18, 537 candidates have filed with the Federal Election Commission to run in the 2020 presidential election.
This includes 184 Democratic candidates, 69 Republican candidates, 19 Libertarian candidates and 14 Green candidates.
While this may seem like an absurdly large number, experts, such as Dr. Aaron Mason, a political science professor at Northwestern Oklahoma State, say this is just public perception.
“Due to ballot access laws, most of candidates will never get close to primary or caucus ballots,” he explained. Of the large number of people who have filed with the FEC, about six big names stand out, Mason said.
Those big names include the likes of Sen. Elizbeth Warren, D-Mass., Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Sen. Kirsten Gillbrand, D-Calif.
According to the FEC.gov website, the running candidates must register with the Federal Election Commission once they either receive contributions or make expenditures over $5,000. Within 15 days of reaching the $5,000 threshold, they must file a Statement of Candidacy, authorizing a principal campaign committee to raise and spend funds on their behalf. Within 10 days of that filing, the principal campaign committee must submit a Statement of Organization. From then on, the campaign will report its receipts and disbursements back to the FEC on a regular basis.
Despite the current number of registered candidates, a vast majority of them are not expected to last.
“I see it as a two-year election cycle, like an ‘exploratory era’,” Mason said. “A lot of work goes into a two-year long campaign.”
Mason went on to add that people starting their campaigns now may end up dropping out of the race around June or July of next year. However, even with large numbers expected to drop out, Mason still expects to see a healthy number of serious candidates in the summer of 2020.
“It’s not crowded yet, but I do expect more in the future,” Mason said. “It’s too early to tell, but if I had to guess, I would say there will be around 10 to 15 candidates.”
It is not uncommon for the political party out of office to have a large number of candidates run for the party nomination.
During the primaries of the 2016 presidential election, 12 Republican candidates were still running, including Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Dr. Ben Carson.
Even with President Donald Trump announcing his run for re-election back in January of 2017, the Republican party can still back a different candidate for the 2020 election, although it is unlikely, Mason said. One thing that is interesting is the emergence of “famous” or “celebrity” candidates.
This is not the first time people of recognition have spent their time in public office. Perhaps the most recent is actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was the governor of California from 2003 to 2011. Other examples include the likes of retired professional wrestler Jesse Ventura, who served as the 38th governor of Minnesota from 1999 to 2003, and singer Sonny Bono, who was a California congressman from 1995 to 1998.
“Name recognition is key,” Mason said. “What people perceive is their reality in politics.”
Perhaps people are getting this from a reality-show state of mind that they see so much of on social media and television. With big celebrity names such as Dwayne Johnson and Kanye West contemplating their own presidential campaigns, it is not out of the realm of possibility.
“An important question that the Democrats need to answer is ‘do we want a progressive, far-left candidate or a safer, moderate candidate?’” Mason said. In the
2016 presidential election, the Democratic party went with the more moderate Hilary Clinton. “She is left of center on the political spectrum, but she is not as progressive as some of the other Democrats such as Bernie Sanders,” Mason said.
Steven Deckard, a senior criminal justice major, said he is against these celebrity candidates. “I just don’t think that they know enough about the ins and outs of politics and how to effectively run it,” Deckard said. “For example, compare Oprah and Donald Trump. Both may have successful businesses under their names, but Oprah acts more as an investor than a business owner. She didn’t build the business herself. Trump, on the other hand, built his businesses from the ground up and made them profitable.”
Whether an influx of celebrity candidates who run for political office will occur in the future, only time will tell, but the trends of the government are not set in stone.
“The presidency is an evolving institution,” Mason said. “We might be coming up on the age of the celebrity race, and I don’t know if that’s good or not for the country, but it seems to be where we are headed.”
The United States government was founded on the premise that the people are capable of governing themselves. This has come to be known as the American experiment. “We either survive on that principle or we fall on that principle,” Mason said. “The American government is an experiment, an ongoing experiment, and I hope it continues to prosper.”